Jake's Predictions (before this weekend): Staked 494pts | Returned 526pts | P/L +32pts | ROI 6.4%
Football betting tips: Premier League
All games 4pm Sunday
2pts Jarrod Bowen to score or assist in Ipswich vs West Ham at 10/11 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Under 2.5 cards in Fulham vs Man City at 7/5 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt Eberechi Eze to score anytime in Liverpool vs C Palace at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Aston Villa win to nil vs Man Utd at 11/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt A sending off in N Forest vs Chelsea at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Each team 3+ cards in N Forest vs Chelsea at 3.15/1 (Betfair)
0.5pt Both teams to have a red card in N Forest vs Chelsea at 55/1 (William Hill)
1pt Over 4.5 Goals in Wolves vs Brentford at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Last week was a good one with the only disappointment being Everton and Southampton failing to conjure up one more goal between them. Had they done, and it would have been a cracking gameweek 37.
But we head into the final week of the season with profit locked in for the campaign - provided we don't go crazy this weekend!
Certain games could go crazy on Sunday though, as has been the trend on final days lately.
Across the last six seasons, we have seen an average of 3.51 goals per game on the final day of the season, so we could have a lot of fun even if the title race and relegation battles have long since been over.
There are a few things still to work out though, with three Champions League spots, two Europa League spots and eighth place (which could get Europa Conference League) still up for grabs.
There are ten games, so it'll be a snapshot-style in games I have no bet for, while the staking plan is a tad more speculative than usual.
Bournemouth vs Leicester
Dean Huijsen - who leaves for Real Madrid after this - to score anytime, but 13/2 is skinny.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Fulham vs Manchester City
A point for Manchester City should be enough to secure Champions League football next season due to their superior goal difference, and that makes this a tough game to assess in of the winner. But, opposing cards could be the way in.
Fulham have nothing to play for and if City control the game and the tempo, the match could fizzle out. Referee Andy Madley is generally good for a low-card game on the final day, so we'll back UNDER 2.5 CARDS at 7/5.
Madley can be a maniac, as shown by his back-to-back 11 card games, but either side of that flurry he's cooled off, with this bet winning in five of his last eight league games.
He dished just one card on Monday as Brighton beat Liverpool, while across his final day games over the past six seasons he's delivered under 2.5 cards five times, averaging just 1.67 cards per game.
The no card game has landed once in that time, and he has delivered two no card games in his last 11 league outings - one of those being a Fulham home game - so the 12/1 (William Hill) did appeal, but given there is still something on the line for City, I prefer the security of a couple of cards being shown.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Ipswich vs West Ham
Ipswich's miserable season is nearly over, they'll just be hoping to avoid copying Luton and following up a bad campaign with another.
Twenty-three defeats in 37 games, 79 goals shipped, they have been too easy to play against, especially at home, with 13 losses coming at Portman Road, and just the solitary win. Seven points in 18 home games... yikes.
We have to oppose them one last time and as has been the case the last two weeks when it's come to JARROD BOWEN.
The Englishman has been on fire to close out the season, and has landed us back-to-back winners, so why jump off the bandwagon now? Yep, we are going in again, BOWEN TO SCORE OR ASSIST is available at 10/11. He's 8/13 in places.
Bowen has been sensational since the March international break, quite simply being solely responsible for anything good West Ham do going forward.
The Hammers' talisman has scored or assisted in six of his eight starts since the break, with this bet landing in all of his last five. In a poor season for the Hammers, he has been the shining light, and heads into the final weekend with 12 goals and seven assists to his name in 33 appearances.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 4/11 | Draw 17/4 | Away 11/2
It'll be a huge day of celebration for Liverpool on Sunday as they get their hands on the Premier League trophy.
It's fair to say Arne Slot's side have shifted down the gears since securing their 20th title, coasting to the finish line and conceding a lot of goals.
The intensity has dropped, and they have been carved open by their last three opponents. In that trio of games, the Reds have conceded a combined eight goals and 7.91 xGA.
Crystal Palace will be in celebratory mood too, but they can take advantage of this slack version of Liverpool and grab a couple of goals.
That means the price about FA Cup hero EBERECHI EZE TO SCORE ANYTIME has to be snapped up, with the Englishman in stellar form.
He's found the net in six straight games, including midweek during a nine-minute cameo, while since the March international break he's found the net in eight of his 12 appearances.
In that time he's averaged an impressive 0.66 xG per 90, so has been seeing a lot of good scoring opportunities, and he's been taking his chances well.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Manchester United vs Aston Villa
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 8/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 7/5
Well, there's no saving it now. This season has been Europa League final was effectively a 'get out of jail free card', and Ruben Amorim's side couldn't take advantage.
That game, like so many recent United games, came down to the fact that they simply cannot score goals. I reckon they could still be playing in Bilbao and would be yet to find the net.
So, with that in mind, I think we have to rinse and repeat last week's winning bet involving ASTON VILLA and back them TO WIN TO NIL.
United's attack is abysmal, but it's Villa's overall form and process that really sells this bet.
Unai Emery's men have been on a tear since the March international break, winning nine of 12 in all competitions, and seven of eight league games.
Their underlying process in that time has been staggering. Villa lead the league on expected points per game (2.14), sit third for xGF per game (1.98) and, importantly for this bet, boast the best defensive process (0.87 xGA per game) on their way to five clean sheets.
There will be a hangover for United, while this game means something for Villa, so we should expect a professional performance from Emery's men, just like last week when they swatted Spurs aside.
Score prediction: Manchester United 0-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Newcastle vs Everton
It's win and in for season-long Newcastle top-four bet. Get it over the line Eddie, come on. Howay the lads!
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 2/1 | Draw 5/2 | Away 6/5
This is the biggest of the final-day games, with a win for Nottingham Forest to a Conference League berth. A win for the hosts guarantees Europa League football at least and gives them a slim chance of UCL qualification, while Chelsea could fall to seventh.
So, we should expect fireworks, and I'll take a chance on A SENDING OFF IN THE MATCH.
These two sides are desperate, and their games have featured plenty of cards of late. Chelsea's last two games have seen seven and eight cards respectively, with a red card for Nicolas Jackson in one of those, while Forest's last four have delivered nine, six, 11 and eight.
The reverse fixture earlier in the season saw 10 cards and a sending off, so given the stakes, a repeat could well be on the cards.
The man in the middle is Anthony Taylor, who has been going nuts with his red card of late.
Four of his last 12 matches have seen a red card in the game, while all told he's brandished eight reds in that 12-game span!
So, given the magnitude of the game, we'll throw a dart at BOTH TEAMS TO HAVE A RED CARD at 55/1 too. It's a bet that has landed in two of Taylor's last 12 outings.
And finally, I'll back EACH TEAM 3+ CARDS at north of 3/1. This bet cruised in when the sides met at Stamford Bridge, and has been a winner in each of Forest's last four league matches.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Southampton vs Arsenal
Under cards was the immediate thought in this one but it's plenty short enough. 10/11 for Under 2.5 and 8/1 for no cards... Arsenal to win to nil was the next thought, but that price has been smashed in from 17/10 to 13/10, so I'll settle for a watching brief here. (Don't worry, I won't actually be watching this game).
Score prediction: Southampton 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Tottenham vs Brighton
Well, this game will be just a huge celebration for Brighton looking too short at 3/4 in a game they don't need to win in order to secure eighth.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-3 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Wolves vs Brentford
This could be a lot of fun. Brentford do still have an outside chance of qualifying for Europe but need a lot to go their way this weekend, so, this could turn into a classic end-of-season goal-fest.
We'll chance OVER 4.5 GOALS at 3/1 in the hope things get out of hand.
There will be plenty of excellent attacking players on show at Molineux, and a relaxed feel with the result not really mattering, so chances should flow.
Score prediction: Wolves 3-3 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 25/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 58
- Liverpool 3-2 Crystal Palace
- Nottingham Forest 1-1 Chelsea
- Southampton 0-2 Arsenal
- Newcastle 3-1 Everton
- Manchester United 0-2 Aston Villa
- Fulham 1-2 Manchester City
Odds correct at 1300 BST (23/5/25)
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