- Jake's Predictions (before this weekend): Staked 484.5pts | Returned 511.9 | P/L +27.4pts | ROI 5.7%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Monday
1pt Conor Bradley to be carded in Brighton vs Liverpool (20:00) at 4/1 (BetVictor)
Brighton vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 8/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 7/5
The final game of the season can't come quickly enough for 2-0 lead against Arsenal, and this is their final game before the trophy lift.
They are easily opposable on Monday with all eyes on the weekend, as the Reds cruise to the end of the campaign, but one player not cruising will be reports linking Arne Slot's side with g a right-back, Bradley has to finish strong.
He's generally an overzealous player as it is, but he'll be even more front-foot, as he has been since starting. As a consequence his price TO BE CARDED looks huge on Monday and well worth backing.
The Northern Irishman was given a tough time last week against Arsenal and was carded, and he has in fact been booked in four of his last five league starts. Over the course of the season he's averaged 1.73 fouls per 90 and a huge 0.58 cards per 90.

At the time of writing, we don't know whether Brighton's season will still be alive, as a win in the FA Cup final for Crystal Palace means the Seagulls would have nothing left to play for, but even so they'll be looking to win their last home game of the campaign.
Either way, Bradley is in for a tough night against either Pervis Estupinan, and with Andy Madley the man in the middle (averaging 4.06 cards per game), the 4/1 looks value.
Madley is fresh from some huge card games, flashing 11 in Palace vs Forest and the same total in Sunderland vs Coventry.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Super 6 predictions for round 57
- Everton 3-1 Southampton
- West Ham 2-2 Nottingham Forest
- Brentford 3-2 Fulham
- Leicester 3-1 Ipswich
- Arsenal 1-2 Newcastle
- Brighton 2-1 Liverpool
Already advised
Friday
1pt Aston Villa to win to nil vs Spurs (19:30) at 9/5 (Beftair, Betvictor)
1.5pts Marc Cucurella 1+ total shot and under 4.5 goals in Chelsea vs Man Utd (20:15) at 11/10 (Betfair)
Sunday
2.5pts Over 2.5 goals in Everton vs Southampton (12:00) at 4/5 (Betfred, bet365)
1pt Jarrod Bowen to score or assist in West Ham vs N Forest (14:15) at 7/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Fabian Schar 1+ total shot in Arsenal vs Newcastle (16:30) at evens (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Dan Burn 1+ total shot in Arsenal vs Newcastle (16:30) at 7/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Oleksandr Zinchenko to be carded in Arsenal vs Newcastle (16:30) at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
The Premier League is nearing completion but this weekend is a little different to normal.
We have two Friday games, with the League moving affording both Tottenham and Manchester united more recovery time ahead of their showdown in the Europa League final in Bilbao
That means there's no Premier League action at all on Saturday, when the FA Cup final takes centre-stage.
Sunday sees Everton play their last ever game at Goodison Park, while Newcastle head to Arsenal knowing a win would see them move up to second. Who would've seen that coming when the Gunners were still fighting Liverpool and Newcastle went through a poor patch around the turn of the year?
Aston Villa vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 19:30 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/3 | Draw 17/4 | Away 13/2
Aston Villa are on a bit of a tear. Spurs are not. Villa need to win here. Spurs do not. Villa will be extremely focused. Spurs will not.
All of that explains why Unai Emery's side are 1/3 to win on Friday night, with Tottenham obviously concentrating on the Europa League final five days after this contest.
Since the March international break, Villa have been the best team in the Premier League, posting a W6 L1 record and racking up the most expected points. Their underlying process in that time has been excellent, averaging 1.93 xGF and 0.87 xGA per game, with that latter figure the best in the division. They also boast a 20-game unbeaten run at home.

It seems sensible to get Villa on side, and I think the way to do that this week is by backing VILLA WIN TO NIL at 9/5.
Villa have kept four clean sheets in their last seven, conceding only to teams in the current top seven, with their defensive figures extremely impressive.
Tottenham, on the other hand, have downed tools in this competition, and were absolutely schooled xG: TOT 0.68 - 3.39 CRY).
In their last three league games, all of which have come either before or after a Europa League game, Spurs have generated just 0.51, 0.85 and 0.68 xGF respectively, with their attack looking stale.
We should also expect rotation across the whole team given the magnitude of the game and the need to avoid any more injuries.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Chelsea vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 20:15 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 13/2
While Spurs could roll over at Villa Park, I think Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
That's because of the post-match reaction of Ruben Amorim following defeat to West Ham last weekend: "If we are not scared of losing a game as Manchester United and don't have that fear anymore, it is the most dangerous thing a big club can have."

He seems tired of it seemingly becoming acceptable for United to lose league matches if they win in Europe, and I suspect we should see a reaction here, meaning I want to back against goals with United keeping things tight.
We'll back UNDER 4.5 GOALS alongside MARC CUCURELLA 1+ TOTAL SHOT for a nice 11/10 bet.
Only one of Chelsea's last 20 matches across all competitions have seen five or more goals, with their controlled approach part of this, plus they will be without the suspended Nicolas Jackson on Friday.
United's games either side of Europa League contests have been low-scoring too, with only two of their last eight breaching this goal line.

Marc Cucurella continues to be a huge attacking threat, taking at least one shot in 19 of his last 25 starts for the Blues across all competitions, averaging 1.28 shots per 90 in that time.
In a game Chelsea have to win, Cucurella should have opportunities to take aim.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Everton vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 12:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Home 2/5 | Draw 7/2 | Away 13/2
It's the final game at Goodison Park and you just know that, with emotions high, Everton won't want to send their stadium off in a bore-fest.
We should see goals here, and I'll happily wade in on OVER 2.5 GOALS at 4/5.
David Moyes' side, fresh from a 3-1 win at Fulham, will open up and have a go, looking to sign off in style on what will be a day of celebration.
Recent examples of this include Tottenham winning 2-1 in their final game at White Hart Lane (2017), West Ham edging a five goal thriller (3-2) to say goodbye to Upton Park and Arsenal hitting four in a 4-2 win in their last match at Highbury.

If that's not enough for you, the Toffees are playing the second worst team in Premier League history, who will be playing without pressure themselves having eclipsed Derby's record-low points tally last weekend.
Southampton have conceded 37 goals in 18 away league games and allowed 2.36 xGA across them.
Everton's games at home against teams below them in the table have been entertaining this term too, averaging 3.83 goals per game, with five of the six going over 2.5 goals. Four of those five have come on Moyes' watch, so all things point to goals on Sunday.
Score prediction: Everton 3-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
West Ham vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 14:15 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 17/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 6/4
Nottingham Forest's slide continued last weekend as they were held at home by Leicester. Again they looked vulnerable defensively, a worrying theme of the past few months.
Over the last 12 league games Nuno Espirito Santo's men have conceded an average of 1.79 xGA per game, the fourth most in the league during that time, so there's no way I can back the visitors here.

Like last week, I can't back JARROD BOWEN TO SCORE OR ASSIST at 7/5.
Bowen has now scored 11 goals and assisted a further seven this season, with this bet landing in half of his 32 appearances and five of his last six, averaging 0.48 xGI per 90.
Forest haven't kept a clean sheet in seven away games, conceding 17 times, so West Ham should find the net here, and chances are Bowen has something to do with it.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-2 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Arsenal vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 19/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/5
A potentially huge game for both sides, but also a potentially convenient one for both. Yes, a win for Newcastle would all but guarantee a top five berth.
But a point for Arsenal sees them clinch Champions League football, with a point for the Magpies meaning a win at home to Everton on the final day guarantees a top-five finish. There could be a case that, if this is level after 70 minutes or so, that the two teams call off the dogs.
I doubt that though, especially as this clash has developed some needle in recent years. Across the last 10 meetings Newcastle have won five - including all three this season - to Arsenal's four, with the card average over that period a huge 4.7 per game.
Simon Hooper is the man in the middle and he's averaged 4.59 cards per game, so that could be an avenue to explore.

Thomas Partey, and if he does, his price TO BE CARDED looks large.
The Ukrainian has played limited minutes this season (719) but has been carded twice, one coming against Newcastle in the Carabao Cup first leg. Last season he had three cards to his name and the season before four so he's no stranger to a card.
Plus, when you factor in the match-up, the 15/2 simply looks huge. He'll be playing in the middle against the physically dominant pair of Anthony Gordon.
The main caveat here is whether he starts or not, but we simply have to take that risk at the price available.
A player who will certainly start is DAN BURN, and while tempted to put him up to be carded at 7/2, I think the 7/4 about him having 1+ TOTAL SHOTS is huge value.
The man-mountain is a constant threat from dead-ball situations, and Arsenal have shown weakness from such scenarios of late in the absence of Gabriel. On Sunday, Newcastle will have a significant size advantage from corners and set-pieces, and that only increase should they play three at the back again, so I like Burn's chances.

Mikel Arteta's side have conceded a shot to an opposing centre-back from a dead-ball situation in seven of their last nine league matches, while Burn has taken a shot in seven of his last 11, averaging 0.91 shots per 90 in that time, so the price should be snapped up. The same bet is odds-on in places.
And, not to throw all the eggs into one basket, we'll also have the same bet on FABIAN SCHAR, with his even-money price for 1+ TOTAL SHOTS simply too big to ignore.
Schar has averaged 1.01 shots per 90 this season, but like Burn has been more dangerous of late, firing a shot in seven of his last nine starts to the tune of 1.25 shots per 90.

The Swiss centre-back has had a shot in two of the three meetings with Arsenal already this season too, but the beauty about Schar is that this bet could also land from range, as he is happy to pull the trigger from 25 yards out.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Friday's tips - odds correct at 1400 BST (15/05/25)
Sunday 12:00+14:15 tips - odds correct at 1605 BST (15/5/25)
Sunday 16:30 tips - odds correct at 1405 BST (16/5/25)
Monday's tips - odds correct at 1530 BST (16/5/25)
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