- Jimmy's Punt (before this weekend): Staked 327.9pts | Returned 341.39pts | P/L +13.49pts | ROI 4.0%
Football betting tips: Play-off finals
Shefff Utd vs Sunderland: Saturday 15:01
1pt A red card in the match at 4/1 (bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, William Hill)
0.25pt A red card each team at 66/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Wilson Isidor to be carded at 3/1 (BetVictor)
1pt Jack Robinson to be carded at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Isidor and Robinson card double at 14/1 (BetVictor)
Charlton vs Leyton Orient: Sunday 13:01
0.5pt Matty Godden to score and be carded at 28/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Charlie Kelman to score and be carded at 19/1 (Sky Bet)
Wimbledon vs Walsall: Monday 15:01
1pt Walsall to win and Tommy Simkin to be carded at 17/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Wimbledon to win and Owen Goodman to be carded at 16/1 (bet365)
Having done a column almost solely focused on the EFL all season, it felt like I should do one for the play-off finals. Well, being totally honest, I got told to. I really, really couldn’t be arsed. In their infinite wisdom, between them Joe and Jake suggested I do so, and then Tom made sure I actually did. Teamwork.
It's been a good week. We This Week’s Acca 'lads' have mixed a bit of riverside drinking in the sun with a trip to Wembley record a few podcasts, as well as doing a few other bits and bobs you could loosely describe as work.
With my beloved Blades in action at the home of football on Saturday, I decided to stick around for an extra day in The Big Smoke but that's come at quite a cost. Away from my usual, safe, three-screen desk in our Leeds office, surrounded by like-minded people, I've been moving from pub to cafe to pub with a crusty laptop, wasting valuable drinking time and looking like the kind of narcissistic work knobhead I'm usually the first person to shake their head at disapprovingly.
Oh how the tables have turned Jimmy.
Anyway, enough of my own narcissism, on to play-offs.
Red mist
This really is football in its most glorious and gut-wrenching form. I love these games and I’ve gone about several ways to grab your interest.
Duffman’s unpacked the trends in his Notebook and I’ve looked at the more pie in the sky punts.
Across the last 19 seasons of play-off football (because that’s how far Whoscored went back) there's been the following across the 57 finals in the three divisions:
- Red cards: 12
- Player goal & cards: 8
- Keeper cards: 7
I was a little surprised to learn that half of the red cards across the last 57 play-off finals have come from the Championship clashes.
With recent history learning towards the Championship for reds, Sheffield United's match with Sunderland is worth a closer look.
- CLICK HERE to read our Championship play-off final best bets
- Sheffield United vs Sunderland live odds, form and stats
Chris Kavanagh has the whistle and he is a referee with a good red card track record on such occasions.
In four second tier play-off appearances (three semis, one final), Kavanagh has brandished two red cards and one came in the showpiece event between Brentford and Swansea.
The match-up also has a good track record for early baths. Both teams finished a man light when the sides met at Bramall Lane this season and there have been three reds across the last four head-to-heads.
These sides both ranked in the top third for ill-discipline this term as well, so on a big stage, the occasion could get the better of them.
Both A RED CARD IN THE MATCH and A RED CARD EACH TEAM appeals.
It is also worth noting the two league meetings saw 15 cards in total and there is a particular match-up that catches the eye: WISLON ISIDOR against JACK ROBINSON.
Isidor’s tireless work-rate makes him a defender's nightmare, he is constantly harrying and hassling.
The frontman has picked up 10 bookings in the league, one against Sheffield United, and drew cards from Robinson in both games this season.
Backing both players TO BE CARDED as well as in a CARD DOUBLE is worth a punt.
Who's going to be a hero?
An entire season boils down to one game, it’s pure cinema, and sometimes it boils down to one moment.
A player scores what proves to be the winner and whips his top off to celebrate. I am talking about the exact thing that happened with Sunderland’s the semi final second leg at the Stadium of Light.
Across the last 57 finals, there have been numerous players who have scored and been carded but only eight who have scored and then been carded for overzealous celebrations.
The most iconic examples are probably Bobby Zamora for QPR in 2014 or Ricardo Vaz Te for West Ham in 2012.
This is certainly an angle worth exploring this weekend if the game state suits. If the teams are drawing heading into the latter stages, it is worth chucking a few arrows at some likely candidates to score and be carded at monstrous odds.
Obviously, I don’t have that luxury here.
In comparison to the Championship and League Two, League One has been the worst division for the markets examined in this article but given the strikers on display, it looks to be the best bet for a couple of pre-game goal and card combinations.
MATTY GODDEN netted 19 goals this term and was carded three times with the combination landing in the 1-0 win over Wycombe in the semi-final second leg (not for celebrating).
Backing Godden TO SCORE AND BE CARDED is the bet.
It is the same thinking for CHARLIE KELMAN TO SCORE AND BE CARDED.
League One’s top scorer will likely be playing his last game for Leyton Orient and no doubt will be dreaming of the most spectacular end before he returns to his parent club QPR.
Kelman has four cards alongside his 23 goals with this combination clicking in three league games.
Keeper cards
In the final column of the season, I simply have to sign off with some keeper card combinations and where better than in League Two’s final.
Recent history dictates that League Two is the happiest hunting ground for big ol’ punts.
In comparison to the other divisions, the fourth tier ranks first for keeper cards and win combinations, first for goal and card celebration combinations and second for red cards.
I’ll definitely be having a tickle on all of the above in this clash but it just stinks of keeper cards.
How TOMMY SIMKIN only has three cards this season is a mystery.
He was up to his usual 'hoy in the semi-finals and should Walsall take the lead he will bring out all the antics at Wembley.
Combining a WALSALL WIN and him TO BE CARDED is one of the bets.
OWEN GOODMAN also has three cards so it is rinse-and-repeat combining him TO BE CARDED with a WIMBLEDON WIN.
Odds correct at 1130 GMT (23/05/25)
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