It's the best weekend of the year...if your team isn't involved.
The Sky Bet EFL takes over Wembley for three days of play-off finals. A thrilling long weekend for the neutral but one of either agony or ecstasy for those occupying the two ends of the national stadium.
An entire season's worth of work comes down to 90 minutes. It could even be undone in just a few. One mistake can prove costly - it's a weekend where you fear becoming the villain as opposed to being the hero.
The weekend follows an unorthodox method of build-up. The Championship - the main event - goes first on Saturday and while that is undoubtedly the game that will garner the most interest, they don't have to play it following two days' worth of other games on the same pitch.
League One is on Sunday followed by League Two on bank holiday Monday. It's a long weekend where you don't have to search through the TV guide.
Here's five points of interest for the three games.
The table doesn't lie
The play-off weekend kicks off on Saturday with a fascinating tie as Sunderland.
This continues the recent trend where third has faced fourth at Wembley.
It's the fifth time in the past six seasons where the top two 'seeds' meet at the national stadium. From the previous four, fourth has actually come out on top on three occasions.
This match-up has happened in nine (45%) of the previous 20 editions of the Championship.
For the Blades, their spot in the final means that the third-placed side has reached the final in nine of the last ten.
The one who didn't? Leeds in 2018/19, but then they have won the title twice since so...swings and roundabouts.
In total, we've seen 45% of the Championship play-off winners being the side which finished the regular season in third. The next best is fourth on 25%.
The table doesn't usually lie and this is becoming more evident in an area of the English football pyramid where the gaps appear to be growing larger.
Does individual history matter though?
You find with football fans and their opinions on their own club to be at either end of the scale. Overwhelmingly negative or overwhelmingly positive - seldom do we tread the middle ground.
For the neutral, the table told us that Sheffield United were the best of the bunch involved. The Blades' faithful though will point to their poor play-off record as a club.
Sheffield United have failed to be promoted in all nine of their previous play-off campaigns. Not only that, but they didn't score in any of the four finals they participated in.
While overall history is a great reference point as it typically follows a trend, individual clubs' is completely irrelevant.
The last play-off campaign involving the Blades was in 2022. Paul Heckingbottom, the current Preston boss, was in charge.
But not only is this manager different, so is the team who will feature. From the 11 starters of their second leg defeat to Nottingham Forest, just one (Jack Robinson) is likely to be involved at Wembley.
"Everyone thought Newcastle would get turned over in the Carabao Cup but they had a day and a night to . It will happen," was Chris Wilder's assessment before the play-off campaign began.
"Sheffield United will win play-off semi-finals and will win a play-off final. And it’s about time that they did it."
They won't be wasting time reflecting on their own history and, frankly, neither should we.
The lucky Black Cats
Perhaps now is a good time to make the point I made in the last edition of the Notebook again. This, though, just for a bit of fun.
Over the past 10 seasons with fans, it’s 5-5 for the winning team of the Championship final and the end their ers were in at Wembley.
However, more recent years have favoured the West.
Three of the previous four teams who have gone on to achieve promotion had their ers seeing them over the line from the West end of Wembley - that’s to the left of the main TV camera angle.
The only team who didn’t across that run was Luton, whose fans witnessed their success on penalties against Coventry from the East.
And if you go back slightly further, it’s four from the previous six. It's certainly the end to be in based on recent history.
So, who has the 'Lucky End' this season? Sunderland fans will be in the West; Sheffield United in the East.
In fact, you can stretch it to all three divisions across recent seasons.
Across the past five, again with ers so avoiding the pandemic era, those ers housed in the West have been celebrating far more often.
From the 15 finals, 11 have seen celebrations in the West (73%) with just four in the East (27%). Two of the last three seasons have had a clean sweep for the West side too.
If you want a 'West End Treble', your teams to back are Sunderland, Wimbledon.
Goals not common
Finals are typically cagey affairs.
Teams sometimes operate with a mindset of not losing as opposed to trying to win. Ultimately, nobody will how you did it as long as you succeed.
This is evident in the play-offs as well, where fans' nerves at Wembley aren't massively eased by goals to celebrate. In fact, one may well be enough.
Six of the previous 30 finals (20%) have finished 0-0 after 90 minutes. There's been a single goal in five (17%) with two goals scored in nine of the matches (30%) - that being the most common outcome.
We have had some action though with four goals landing on four occasions (13%) - a bit of a rarity in more recent times.
Under 2.5 goals backers will have won in all three finals last season, with the same applying in 2023. In fact, you have to go back to Port Vale's 3-0 win over Mansfield in the League Two final in 2022 for the last time we saw three or more scored.
Don't Overs do it
Goals have been somewhat of a rarity in recent seasons but then so too has general action.
Across the last nine finals, the corners average stands at 8.22 yet excluding extra-time drops the figure to 7.22. In fact, the corner count has hit double figures just once across this period - the being Oxford's 2-0 win over Bolton in League One last season.
The cards count has followed a similar trend. Two of the nine (23%) have seen five or more cards in 90 minutes - with just the one being shown more times (3 - 34%).
Backing two cards or fewer would have been a winner in five (56%). Much like goals, a tense affair leads to a more 'stand off' style approach where players become a bit more afraid to take risks.
It's typically a good weekend for an Unders backer.
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