Andy Schooler previews Friday’s Rome Masters semi-finals – is a Carlos Alcaraz v Jannik Sinner final now inevitable?
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters
1pt Lorenzo Musetti to win a set v Carlos Alcaraz at 5/6 (BoyleSports)
Carlos Alcaraz v Lorenzo Musetti (not before 1430 BST)
Before I saw the market for this one, I was expecting Musetti to be around the 9/5 mark but instead he’s a 5/2 shot.
I therefore think there’s potentially some value surrounding the home hope.
My assessment is based on how well he’s played, not only this week, but also in Monte Carlo and Madrid.
The problem is, Musetti has lost five of his six previous meetings with Alcaraz, all bar one of which have been played at tour level. Alcaraz is 2-1 up on clay and has won the last four.
The Spaniard’s dominance is highlighted by the hold/break stats which show he’s held serve 80% of the time across those matches and broken in a remarkable 41% of return games.
However, the hope I see comes from the pair’s most recent clash, which came in the Monte Carlo final.
Musetti really took the game to Alcaraz in the early stages of that contest and duly won the first set 6-3.
What happened afterwards was something of a nightmare, the Italian winning only one game, but there is some mitigation in place.
That was a very tough week physically for Musetti, who was consistently taken the distance and had played a huge amount of tennis come finals day. Monte Carlo is also one of the Masters 1000 events which remains packed into one week.
The 11-day Rome event has had rest days built in, while Musetti is yet to lose a set in this tournament. He will be better prepared for this rematch – and will have significant crowd .
Alcaraz dropped a set to Karen Khachanov in the last 16, while Laslo Djere should really have claimed the opener in their match too.
In short, the Spaniard has had lapses this week, although he’s still been too good for all-comers thus far.
He may well come through this one too, although I’m hoping not from an outright point of view having put Musetti up at 33/1 each way.
However, I do see Musetti – arguably the only player on tour who plays the drop shot as well as Alcaraz - putting up a strong fight given how well he’s been playing.
Musetti to win a set is tempting at 5/6 and worth a small play.
For those seeking a bigger price, a 2-1 win for Alcaraz holds some appeal 11/4.
Jannik Sinner v Tommy Paul (not before 1930 BST)
It’s hard to get excited about this one from a betting perspective given Sinner is just 1/9 to win.
His performance against Casper Ruud on Thursday was breathtaking, especially when you consider it was just his fourth match back from a three-month suspension. No set has yet been lost.
Ruud, a two-time finalist at the French Open, could literally only laugh when heading to the net to shake hands having won just a single game.
If Paul was watching, one suspects he may already be a beaten man.
At least he has beaten Sinner before, although that came on grass. He did also take a set off Sinner in their only previous claycourt meeting in 2022, although their last two matches have both been won in straight sets by the Italian, who is just 4/9 to win this 2-0.
Based on what we saw yesterday, that’s decent enough for those prepared to play the short prices but those aren’t odds I can suggest backing here.
Sinner to cover a 5.5-game handicap is offered at odds-against, which has the potential to look a good price if the home hope is able to replicate his quarter-final form.
That would probably be my bet if pushed but I feel this isn’t a match worth getting involved in financially.
After all, Paul has enjoyed some success on the Sinner serve in the past – those four previous matches have seen him break nine times (to Sinner’s 13).
Published at 0750 BST on 16/05/25
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