After a profitable first round at the Rome Masters, Andy Schooler previews round two…
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters
1pt Corentin Moutet to beat Ugo Humbert at 7/5 (General)
0.5pt Mariano Navone to win the first set v Jannik Sinner at 19/5 (Unibet, BetMGM)
Jannik Sinner v Mariano Navone (Sat)
I just can’t resist siding with Navone in some shape or form here.
It’s hard to tell what sort of tennis Sinner will deliver in what will be his first match following a three-month drugs ban.
Do what you want in practice but it can never replicate matchplay entirely – and Sinner has only been allowed to practise with fellow pros for the last few weeks.
Clay has never been Sinner’s favourite surface. Last year he itted ahead of his return to the dirt in Monte Carlo that “it is a surface I struggle a little bit (on)”.
Before this latest comeback, he’s also downplayed his chances, despite being the ante-post favourite with the bookies, saying it is a “very low expectation tournament”.
Now, I understand there’s probably some mind games being played there but I also suspect he doesn’t really know himself how competitive he will be this week in front of a home crowd.
Certainly his draw is tough and he’s playing a proper dirt-baller first up in Navone.
The Argentine has already beaten top-20 stars Holger Rune and Felix Auger-Aliassime on clay this season and I’d expect him to compete here. Like many South Americans, he’s got strong retrieval skills but his tennis isn’t powder puff and he should be able to hurt Sinner at times.
So, what’s the bet?
He’s getting a 5.5-game start on the handicap and that’s something he’s covered in 32 of his last 34 tour-level matches on clay.
That’s tempting but could he also win a set at a bigger price?
Navone has won a set in 14 of his 15 claycourt matches this season, the odd one out being Matteo Berrettini in Monte Carlo.
You can get 43/20 about him winning a set here but if he’s going to do that, then grabbing the opener looks most likely.
That’s when Sinner will be most vulnerable, you suspect, and I can certainly see a scenario where he manages to find a much better level as the match wears on.
A best price of 19/5 is available about Navone claiming the first set and, given the circumstances, that looks worth a small punt.
Ugo Humbert v Corentin Moutet (Fri)
There were lots of options I considered on the second-round coupon in Rome but I’ve settled on backing Moutet in this all-French battle.
He’s much more at home on clay than Humbert, who prefers much slicker conditions than those found in the Italian capital - it doesn’t get much slower than this on the ATP Tour.
It’s no real surprise to see that Humbert’s form has slumped since hitting the clay – after a strong start to the year on hardcourts, he’s gone 1-3 on the red dirt and has now lost five of his last six matches.
Moutet isn’t pulling up any trees but he’s gone 4-4 on the clay since returning to Europe. That data does include qualifying results – Moutet beat both Gabriel Diallo and David Goffin to reach the main draw in Monte Carlo.
He saw off Rinky Hijikata, another player who prefers quicker courts, in what was a tight first-round encounter and that brings me onto another point.
Humbert has always had a reputation as someone who can get a bit tight come the business end of matches and that’s reflected by a number of close recent defeats.
In contrast, Moutet’s four claycourt wins have all come via 6-4 or 7-5 in the final set scorelines.
He won the pair’s previous encounter – on indoor hard in Paris – and can repeat the trick in more favourable conditions.
Posted at 0900 BST on 09/05/25
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