Andy Schooler has made a profit in every round of the Rome Masters so far. Check out his selections for Tuesday’s fourth-round matches.
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters
1pt Arthur Fils to beat Alex Zverev at 27/20 (Betfair)
1pt Jack Draper & Carlos Alcaraz both to win 2-0 at 11/10 (BetVictor)
0.5pt over 12.5 games in first set of Jakub Mensik v Hubert Hurkacz at 47/20 (Unibet, BetMGM)
Arthur Fils v Alex Zverev
I’m still not sure where Zverev is right now.
In the grand scheme of things, he’s not done a great deal since reaching the Australian Open final in January.
Yes, he did claim a 250 title in Munich but that was a weak field.
But elsewhere on clay, he’s lost to Matteo Berrettini in Monte Carlo and Francisco Cerundolo in Madrid.
The quality dial is turned up a notch (or three) here.
Zverev has breezed through the first two rounds but matches against Camilo Ugo Carabelli and qualifier Vilius Gaubas weren’t expected to prove difficult.
Fils should offer more. He showed that with victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last round and is a player who loves the big stage and the big matches.
He’ll be able to fight power with power from the baseline and there should be some great exchanges in this one.
While not totally convinced, I do feel the Frenchman is worth siding with here at the price.
Jack Draper v Corentin Moutet
Draper continues to impress on clay with two straight-sets wins in Rome just what the doctor ordered following his final appearance in Madrid.
Moutet, on the other hand, may well be feeling the efforts of recent days.
He needed three sets to get past Rinky Hijikata in round one and on Sunday played for almost four hours to claim a career-best win over Holger Rune.
That would have been physically and mentally draining and so coming out to face the Draper firepower may well be a daunting task.
The Frenchman will try to mix things up and win this with his touch but I doubt he will have the tools to deny the in-form Briton, especially if he’s fatigued.
Draper can ease to another 2-0 success.
Karen Khachanov v Carlos Alcaraz
This match-up has proved a massive problem for Khachanov.
The head-to-head shows he’s 4-0 down. In sets, it’s 9-0.
Across those four matches, Alcaraz has held serve 93% of the time and broken his opponent in 42% of return games.
That is dominance.
Laslo Djere’s clay nous did trouble Alcaraz in the first set of their Sunday clash but the Spaniard dug deep to win that in straight sets and a similar result should occur here.
Khachanov has only beaten qualifier Roman Burruchaga (in three sets) and wild card sco aro so far; this will be a massive step up.
Alcaraz is a better mover and ball-striker and I don’t see him being troubled here.
Hubert Hurkacz v Jakub Mensik
I took on Hurkacz on Monday and while that ultimately produced a loser, a three-set defeat for Marcos Giron was a decent effort, at least in spells.
He certainly found chinks in the Pole’s armour and Mensik’s bigger game can do likewise.
Mensik is yet to lose a set in Rome and saw off an in-form Fabian Marozsan in the last round. While he lost the pair’s only previous meeting, a five-set reverse at last year’s Australian Open was a decent-enough result at the age of just 18.
Almost 18 months on and following big improvement, I can see Mensik gaining revenge.
However, he’s short enough at 8/15. Instead, this could also be a time to head to the tie-break markets.
The first set of that Melbourne clash went the distance, while Mensik has played a breaker in both matches so far in Rome, making it a tie-break in five of his seven claycourt matches this season.
These are two of the biggest servers in the game right now and with temperatures up to around the 25C mark in the Italian capital, where it’s also been dry, conditions should be relatively fast.
Only a few firms are up at time of writing but 5/6 (Unibet) is on offer about a tie-break in the match.
There’s also 47/20 about the opener going over 12.5 games and that’s worth a nibble.
You might get bigger prices if you are prepared to wait.
Posted at 1650 BST on 12/05/25
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