Having landed a 12/5 winner on Tuesday, Andy Schooler previews the quarter-final action at the Rome Masters.
Tennis betting tips: Rome Masters
1pt Hubert Hurkacz (+3.5) to beat Tommy Paul on the game handicap at 8/11 (BoyleSports)
Hubert Hurkacz v Tommy Paul (Thu, 1200 BST)
Having struggled to find a bet on Wednesday’s quarter-finals, it was pleasing to see a price stand out immediately for this match.
Having seen most of both players’ last-16 matches, I’m not convinced at all that Hurkacz should be out at 9/5 to win this one.
OK, he did lose the same encounter at this very stage 12 months ago but Paul was a narrow winner – 6-3 in the third. The match featured no fewer than 13 breaks of serve.
If Paul, now 2-1 up overall on the head-to-head, is able to enjoy the same sort of success on the Pole’s big delivery, then he will stand a good chance of a repeat.
But Hurkacz’s serve worked very well against Jakub Mensik on Tuesday and he was broken only once in what was a serve-dominated match.
Paul started slowly against Alex de Minaur but ended up a convincing winner, although his Australian foe would have been disappointed with his performance which contained too many errors.
That was a contest of long, drawn-out rallies but here Paul faces greater power, not only off the serve but also both forehand and backhand wings. Points will definitely be shorter.
I’ve been a little surprised to see Hurkacz competing so well in the longer points over the past week and he certainly can’t be ruled out here.
Paul will need to get a better read of the serve than Mensik did. To be fair, he is a better returner, but I don’t think a repeat of last year’s break-fest is guaranteed.
With Hurkacz’s propensity to play tie-breaks, I think heading to the handicap market could be worthwhile.
There’s every chance that if Paul does win, he does so by winning a breaker and, if that’s the case, he may struggle to cover the 3.5-game handicap.
It’s also worth noting that Paul has never beaten Hurkacz in straight sets and covering the 3.5 in a three-set match would be tough.
A small bet on that is the best I can come up with for the quarter-finals, although those wanting a bigger price should definitely consider Hurkacz to win the match.
Jack Draper v Carlos Alcaraz (Wed, not before 1400 BST)
A price comparison is a measure of how far Draper has come in the past couple of months.
When these two met in the Indian Wells semis in March, Draper was chalked up at 18/5. Now, having moved onto Alcaraz’s preferred surface (and supposedly Draper’s weakest), the Briton’s odds are no bigger than 9/4. For the record, this will be their first claycourt meeting.
I us making a decent profit on that Indian Wells encounter. Draper rattled Alcaraz early on but it was an error-strewn display from the Spaniard – rarely have I seen him miss so often.
It’s hard to imagine a repeat of that performance here, although that doesn’t mean Draper is without a chance.
I don’t think we’ve seen Alcaraz’s best level so far in Rome and he was pushed to a deciding set by Karen Khachanov on Tuesday, Laslo Djere should also have taken a set off him before that.
Draper has the power and consistency in his groundstrokes to trouble the favourite but I’m not sure he’ll get the rhythm he requires.
Corentin Moutet proved a great disruptor on Tuesday, leaving Draper baffled in the opening set with his mix-it-up tennis and in many ways I feel the Frenchman has given Alcaraz the perfect template for this contest.
Few are better at the drop shot than Alcaraz and I suspect he’ll be using that tactic plenty to get Draper going up and down the court rather than from side to side.
Draper did manage to figure out Moutet in the end – and credit to him for that – but the Alcaraz skillset is considerably higher and I expect the Spaniard to triumph.
That said, betting value looks thin on the ground and it’s not a match I want to get involved with.
Lorenzo Musetti v Alex Zverev (Wed, NB 1930 BST)
Zverev spoke about a “high level” match after defeating Arthur Fils on Tuesday.
Musetti also played well to see off Daniil Medvedev and this could be fun to watch.
Musetti, who will have considerable crowd in Rome, leads the head-to-head 2-1. His two wins came last year in Vienna and at the Olympics, the latter on clay. Zverev’s sole victory came via retirement back in 2022.
That data looks good for the home hope and he’s certainly reached a new level in of quality this year. He seems to have effortless power on the forehand, while his touch game warrants serious respect.
It’s a combination that really works on the clay and since moving onto the surface Musetti has already been to the final in Monte Carlo and the semis in Madrid.
Whether he’ll be able to knock Zverev out of his stride or not is the big question and frankly I’m not too sure.
The German has dropped only 14 games to reach this stage and when the quality rose on Tuesday, he dealt with Fils well, the Frenchman fading away having lost a tight opening set.
He seemingly loves playing in Rome where he’s a two-time champion.
I suspect this will be as close as the odds suggest and while I’d probably say Musetti is the better bet at 6/5, if pushed, with an outright interest already on the Italian, I don’t see the need to get involved here.
Maybe a bit too much fence-sitting but hopefully I can find a bet for at least one of Thursday’s quarter-finals – I’ll add something on those matches in due course.
Updated at 1530 BST on 14/05/25
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