Andy Schooler previews the women’s singles at the French Open, which gets under way on Sunday.
Tennis betting tips: French Open
2.5pts Coco Gauff to win the title at 5/1 (General)
1pt Elise Mertens to win quarter three at 20/1 (Betfred)
French Open, women’s singles
- Roland Garros, Paris, (outdoor clay)
This time last year, Iga Swiatek was sent off a 4/6 favourite for the French Open – and duly became the first woman in 17 years to win it for a third time in a row.
Twelve months on and you can get 7/2 about a player who is already surely destined to go down as the greatest claycourter of her generation.
So, what’s gone wrong and, more importantly, is she now at a price worth backing?
Well, first there was a shock loss to Qinwen Zheng back at Roland Garros during the Olympic Games where the expected gold medal became bronze.
A few weeks later, Swiatek tested positive for trimetazidine and would later, somewhat controversially, serve a one-month ban.
“I felt my career was hanging by a thread, spent three weeks crying daily, and didn't want to step on the court,” she revealed on Friday when facing the media.
The start of the new season brought only new woes.
The Australian Open semi-final concluded with her first-ever defeat from match point up and that’s when the funk really seemed to kick in. Several shock defeats followed, the biggest in Miami where teenager Alexandra Eala stunned the Pole.
Many expected a return to the clay to sort things out, but it’s not happened.
Swiatek lost to nemesis Jelena Ostapenko in Stuttgart, Coco Gauff in Madrid and Danielle Collins, early, in Rome. Her title rivals will arrive in Paris sensing vulnerability in Swiatek for the first time in years.
After all, the former world number one hasn’t even played in a final since winning here last year, yet alone claimed a title.
Maybe a return to the scene of her greatest glories will kick Swiatek back into top gear but, frankly, it seems unlikely.
The draw certainly hasn’t helped her cause.
That lack of titles has seen her drop to fifth in the world rankings and so she may now have to beat Rome champion Jasmine Paolini and world number one Aryna Sabalenka just to make the final.
That’s before we start talking about Marta Kostyuk and Ostapenko, who has now won six out of six against the Pole.
She’ll have her backers at 7/2 but I won’t be among them.
Sabalenka is the favourite with most layers now but she’s yet to make the final in Paris, where her bludgeoning power doesn’t get quite the same cut-through.
She should still contend – she won in Madrid and made the final in Stuttgart – but from what I’ve seen there have been a few too many dips during the clay season for my liking.
Defeats to Ostapenko and Zheng are far from disastrous in the lead-up to this event but neither it is ideal to lose to two of your title rivals ahead of the big one, especially when one of them (Zheng) is in your quarter of the draw.
Elise Mertens and Sofia Kenin also had her on the ropes in recent weeks, while Kostyuk should have claimed at least a set against the Belarusian in Rome.
Look, I don’t think Sabalenka is far away and she may well win the title but I’m just not confident enough about here chances to be backing her at 14/5.
I liked the way Paolini played en route to winning in Rome and it was here last year where the Italian really secured her big breakthrough at the top level, reaching the final.
She’s a great exponent of claycourt tennis and always a great watch.
I think there could be some juice in her price at 16/1 but landing in this half of the draw hasn’t helped her chances.
She may have to go through Elina Svitolina, a form player who I would have considered in a weaker section, Switaek and Sabalenka just to make the final.
The 2025 Women's singles draw ✔️#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/nRsQSMq3I1
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) May 22, 2025
Consequently, I much prefer to head to the bottom half of what is a lop-sided draw for my main selection.
COCO GAUFF has performed consistently well at Roland Garros making the quarter-finals, at least, in each of the last four years. On every occasion, she has lost to the eventual champion, that player being Swiatek in the last three seasons.
The American, a winner at Grand Slam level at the 2023 US Open, made the final here three years ago and with Swiatek in a trough at the moment, she should feel this is a great opportunity to go that one step further.
She has the game for this surface, her movement around the court playing a major part in a great defence.
Her backhand is a real weapon and while the forehand has long had a tendency to break down, there’s a theory that clay is the best surface to hide that weakness.
Double faults have also been an issue at times and anyone who saw her play Zheng in Rome recently may well have left that match wondering how on earth she won it.
Yet that goes to show another of Gauff’s talents – she’s a real fighter and will always try to find a way when she’s not really ‘on it’.
The draw here could not have gone a great deal better with nearly all her main title rivals on the other side of it.
The one that isn’t is Mirra Andreeva, the Indian Wells champion.
However, Gauff has just beaten her on the clay of both Madrid and Rome so the teenager should not hold any fears. In any case, I suspect Andreeva would rather still be on the hardcourts.
While not a price to get too heavily involved with, 5/1 about Gauff does look worth taking.
I’m also tempted to back someone other than Andreeva in quarter three given she’s taking up such a large chunk of the market (she’s around evens).
She did make the semis here 12 months ago and has certainly kicked on since, notably winning in Dubai and Indian Wells.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I’m still not totally convinced by the Russian, especially on the clay, and she’s far from bombproof in my book.
Instead, let’s try a punt on ELISE MERTENS at 20/1.
OK, she’s just 6-4 on clay this season but her defeats have all come against strong opponents.
Twice she’s run into Sabalenka (and she won the first set against her in Madrid) with Zheng (again in three sets) and Diana Shnaider the others to topple her.
Jessica Pegula has been among those defeated and the American is the highest seed in this section.
Former finalist here, Karolina Muchova, is also in Mertens’ path. The pair are seeded to meet in round three but it should be noted that the injury-prone Czech hasn’t played since Miami so will be stepping onto the clay for the first time since the Olympics last July.
Mertens is at home on this surface and has been to the last 16 in Paris on three occasions.
Things look set up pretty well for her in this section and so 20/1 looks a bet worth taking.
Posted at 2035 BST on 23/05/25
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