Tennis betting tips: French Open men's singles outright preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: French Open

1pt e.w. Lorenzo Musetti to win the title at 25/1 (General)

1pt Francisco Cerundolo to reach the quarter-finals at 9/2 (Unibet, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

French Open, men’s singles

• Roland Garros, Paris, (outdoor clay)

So far this claycourt season, the cream has risen to the top.

Reigning French Open champion Carlo Alcaraz beat Lorenzo Musetti to win the Monte Carlo Masters.

Casper Ruud, a two-time finalist in Paris, captured the Madrid Masters, a tournament Alcaraz missed due to injury.

And when Jannik Sinner returned to action in Rome, he and Alcaraz met in the final, the Spaniard claiming the trophy and, with it, firm favouritism for Roland Garros.

Sinner and Alcaraz are the best two players in the world. The rankings show it and so do the eyes.

As a punter, I was certainly hoping (and to an extent expecting) Sinner to show some rust in Rome, where he was competing for the first time in three months due to his controversial drugs ban.

An iffy display there could have set the cat amongst the pigeons in the outright market here but instead the Italian looked like he’d never been away.

He destroyed Ruud, who was fresh off his Madrid title, for the loss of just one game and it took Alcaraz in tip-top form to stop him in the final.

The leading duo playing so well in Rome was a worrying sign those a little further down the betting list – and punters searching out potential value.

Frankly, it would be no surprise to see the top two seeds in the final again In Paris.

I did consider siding with the duo in the ‘name the finalists’ market but a price of 12/5 (bet365, William Hill) just isn’t for me given that involves the result of 12 matches in total.

In of potential chinks in the armour, it should be pointed out that this is a surface on which Sinner still doesn’t feel completely at home on and he’s yet to reach the final at Roland Garros.

He’s also been drawn into what looks the tougher half.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Arthur Fils and Jack Draper are all players with big games and while you’d expect Sinner to get the better of them, especially in the best-of-five-sets format, all are capable of big results on their day, especially Draper who has been a massive improver so far this season and arrives here in the world’s top five.

All could be faced before the semis where Alex Zverev or Novak Djokovic could await.

Zverev has an excellent record at this tournament, making at least the semis in each of the last four years. Last season he made the final but couldn’t convert a two-sets-to-one lead against Alcaraz into victory.

The German’s form hasn’t been as good as he’d have liked coming in though and that will give hope to Djokovic, at time of writing trying to play himself into shape in Geneva.

I’m not expecting the Serb to win a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title here at the age of 38 - he’s been too inconsistent for me for some time now.

But neither am I prepared to completely write off his chances.

While the last 18 months have been something of a struggle, certainly by his standards, Djokovic has shown an ability to produce his best displays at the big events.

He’s won just one title in that period but it was the one he would have hand-picked – the Olympic Games at this very venue last summer.

There have also been two Australian Open semi-finals runs, one of which was halted by injury. He was also forced to quit this tournament 12 months ago having played well to reach the last eight.

Alcaraz resides in the bottom half where Ruud and Musetti look his greatest rivals for a final spot.

Ruud knows how to deliver here – he reached the final in 2022 and 2023 and might have done the same last year had he not been ill heading into his semi-final with Zverev.

However, you have to wonder how much psychological damage was done by that humbling defeat to Sinner in Rome.

He now trails the Italian 4-0 overall, while it’s 4-1 v Alcaraz with Ruud’s only win coming on an indoor hardcourt when the man down the other end of the court was, again, clearly not very well.

For me, LORENZO MUSETTI, is arguably the best alternative to the big guns.

I highlighted him as one to watch on the clay way back in February when the South American ‘Golden Swing’ began. Having looked a good bet at 9/1, he had to quit Buenos Aires injured after one round – it’s been that sort of season, I’m afraid.

I’m still regretting not backing Musetti in Monte Carlo – his first foray onto the clay in Europe this year – when he made the final at a chunky price, while he’s since reached the semis in both Madrid and Rome. Zverev was beaten at the latter event before Alcaraz again proved too good. In short, his form is very strong.

Musetti possesses natural power in his groundstrokes but he also has the deft touch required for success on clay – some of his drop shots are excellent and a real weapon to have on this surface.

My concern with Musetti relates to the best-of-five format in use at the Grand Slams – does he have the legs for a four-hour war or seven matches in two weeks?

That’s proved a problem in the past. Famously, Musetti has twice been on course to defeat Djokovic at this venue but has ended up losing having faded physically in the latter stages.

You can certainly take the positives in of him getting into a winning position in those matches and, now 23, he’s surely in a better position, certainly than when he was a teenager for the first of those contests.

The good news on that front is he looks well drawn in what it a weak-looking third quarter.

Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune look the biggest dangers but both have struggled for consistency on the clay and it looks to me like Musetti has a good chance to enjoy a fairly smooth age to the latter stages.

Not dropping sets en route could be key in of that fatigue factor, especially when the rallies can become so long and drawn out on this surface.

Frankly, the outright market doesn’t look particularly appealing but Musetti is worth a small each-way bet at a general 25/1. You might gets 33s in a place, if you are lucky.

• CLICK HERE to back Musetti with Sky Bet

I’m also going to delve into one of the specials markets.

FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO is a player I’ve yet to mention but no player has won as many claycourt matches in 2025 as the Argentine.

His issue has been the very top players – his Masters 1000 defeats on clay this year have come against Alcaraz, Ruud and Sinner. Last year here, Cerundolo had Djokovic on the ropes in the last 16 but couldn’t put him away and lost in five.

This season, Cerundolo is in the Djokovic/Zverev quarter and the same half as Sinner, so expecting him to make the final might be asking too much.

However, Unibet (and other sites using the Kambi sportsbook) offer another, more attractive, way of siding with the Argentine.

He’s 9/2 to make the quarter-finals and that looks decent.

Cerundolo will open against Gabriel Diallo, who prefers a slicker surface, before facing either Marcos Giron or Tallon Griekspoor.

Grigor Dimitrov is the first seed he could face but the Bulgarian is injury prone these days and I don’t see him beating Cerundolo on this surface.

Then could come Zverev, although Cerundolo did beat him in Madrid earlier this month with the German since losing to Musetti in Rome and Alexandre Muller in Hamburg.

Zverev would still probably start any rematch as favourite but not by much.

I’ll back the 9/2.

Posted at 1430 BST on 23/05/25

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