Thursday is women’s semi-finals day at the French Open. Andy Schooler previews both matches…
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1pt Iga Swiatek to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 11/10 (General)
1pt Aryna Sabalenka to serve the most double faults v Iga Swiatek at 6/4 (bet365)
Aryna Sabalenka v Iga Swiatek (1400 BST)
This match has a final feel to it and is certainly one nearly every tennis fan wanted to see.
While holes could be picked in both players’ title claims pre-tournament, both have delivered when necessary and we look set for another blockbuster.
Last year’s clash in Madrid was probably the match of the year on the WTA Tour. We can but hope for something similar.
Despite the altitude seemingly in Sabalenka’s favour, Swiatek won that day and she was a much more convincing winner when the pair met down at sea level in Rome two weeks later – the last time these two faced off on clay. Victory that day took Swiatek’s winning record over Sabalenka on the dirt to 5-1. Four of her wins have been achieved in straight sets.
However, the Belarusian has enjoyed more success on the faster surfaces – it’s 8-4 overall with the last meeting going Sabalenka’s way. That was on the hardcourts of Cincinnati last summer.
Since then, Sabelenka has taken a strong grip of the world number one sport with Swiatek now just days away from going a full year without a title.
The Pole was certainly struggling coming into this tournament but a return to Roland Garros appears to be working as she would have hoped.
She’s been almost unbeatable here in recent years, winning four titles in five years, including the last three.
Having been able to ease her way into the tournament, matches against Elena Rybakina and Elina Svitolina both looked banana skins but Swiatek navigated both well. The narrow margin of her victory over the former was a notable one mentally and I do wonder how much of this match will be played in the mind.
Having not lost a set so far, Sabalenka is the bookies’ favourite but does she have total belief against Swiatek on clay?
Two months ago, Sabalenka would not have been favourite to win this match. Should the layers’ view have changed so much?
I don’t think so.
Sabalenka was certainly vulnerable at times against Qinwen Zheng in the last round but the Chinese got nervy at times. Watching that, I did wonder whether a mentally tougher player would have punished the top seed.
Swiatek is certainly capable of getting under Sabalenka’s skin – she won’t be blown off court by her immense power and, in any case, there looks a strong chance this match will be played under the roof of Court Philippe Chatrier. Indoor conditions have been sluggish so far this tournament and that has to favour Swiatek.
Sabalenka has improved a lot mentally in the past two or three years – she seems better equipped to deal with adversity when the errors start to creep into her big-hitting game.
Yet the fact is she still often gets frustrated – the shrug up towards her box remains commonplace – and if anyone is able to prey on that, then it was to be Swiatek on clay.
While not totally convinced of my own argument, my view is that Swiatek is good value at odds-against.
CLICK HERE to back Swiatek to win with Sky Bet
In the sub-markets, Sabalenka looks a spot of value to serve the most double faults at 6/4.
This has occurred in nine of the 12 previous meetings, with two ties.
Now, there’s no doubt she’s tightened up in this department in recent times and, most recently, she’s averaged only 0.23 per game at this tournament, compared to Swiatek’s 0.35.
However, across the season as a whole, the per-match stats are in Swiatek’s favour – Sabalenka serving 3.02 to Swiatek’s 2.49.
In any case, long-term readers will know my view – one that has been proven time and again in the past – is that greater weight should be placed on the head-to-head in these markets.
This is all about match-ups. How well can a player read a serve? Are they able to get a racquet on the ball, even if they can’t return it?
And, perhaps most importantly in this instance, what happens when the quality of opponent rises and greater pressure is added by the returner?
Swiatek should get a lot more back than your average Joe (should that be Josephine?) and Sabalenka will likely need to go closer to the lines and/or add weight to her second serves. That’s when errors can come.
Those head-to-head figures back up this theory and I can’t resist a bet on Sabalenka here at 6/4.
CLICK HERE to bet on Swiatek v Sabalenka with Sky Bet
Lois Boisson v Coco Gauff (after SF1)
I didn’t think I’d live to witness another Emma Raducanu-style Grand Slam triumph but, right now, I’m not so sure.
It’s not exactly the same scenario as the one that unfolded at the 2021 US Open but it’s not far off.
While Raducanu came through qualifying in New York, Boisson was handed a wild card here in Paris. Yet neither could get into the main draw on merit – Raducanu was ranked 150th in the world at the time of her sensational success; Boisson is currently at 152 in the WTA list.
Boisson’s results have arguably been even better. While the draw opened up to some extent for Raducanu four years ago, Boisson has had to beat two top-10 players to reach this stage – Jessica Pegula and Mirra Andreeva.
She has done so impressively, trying as much as possible to get her forehand into play. Expect Gauff to play as much to the backhand as she can and truly test out a player not used to competing at this level.
Even if Boisson is able to play her favoured forehand, she will do well to punch holes in Gauff’s defence, which is among the best in the women’s game.
That aspect of her game was one of the reasons she progressed from a scrappy affair against Madison Keys on Wednesday, although critics will undoubtedly label her opponent’s litany of errors as the primary one.
From what we’ve seen, Boisson is less likely to beat herself, although you do have to wonder whether the enormity of her achievement this past week or so will begin to hit now she’s in a Grand Slam semi-final.
Gauff, of course, has been here and done it all before. She’s won a Slam and won a semi-final at Roland Garros.
If she turns up with something close to her best, she’ll win.
But the problem is that wasn’t the case against Keys and her serve was again a real issue.
I mentioned it as a concern in my outright preview and the double faults bubbled to surface again in that quarter-final. Three were delivered in the first-set tie-break – it’s tennis suicide.
I can imagine how the patriotic crowd will feed off such struggles in this match so Gauff will need to be head strong. To be fair, she does have the ability not to let the serve destroy the rest of her game.
For the record, Gauff’s total double faults line is set at 7.5.
As I wrote yesterday, there’s no real need for me to get involved here, having Gauff in the outright market.
For those that don’t, I’m not really sure what the angle is.
Boisson is now into around 4/1 for the win – she was 13/2 to beat Andreeva which helps show the bookies’ respect.
I’d probably rather back Boisson than Gauff at 2/9 but that’s my head, which always looks towards the bigger prices.
If she can beat Andreeva, she certainly has a chance for a repeat against Gauff, who is being plagued by service issues.
Back the underdog if you wish, but she’s not for me.
CLICK HERE to bet on Boisson v Gauff with Sky Bet
Posted at 2035 BST on 04/06/25
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