Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Soudal Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Soudal Open

2pts e.w. Sam Bairstow at 33/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Jorge Campillo at 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Frederic Lacroix at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Matteo Manassero at 66/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Jacob Skov Olesen at 75/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Matthew Baldwin at 500/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Thomas Pieters is back for another crack at the Soudal Open, a tournament which takes place just a short drive from his home, and the Belgian has again timed things nicely after his best performance of the year last time out.

That top-five in Korea at the beginning of May was pretty much identical to the performance he produced in Singapore a year earlier and having then finished runner-up in his home event, his Sunday charge not quite enough to reel in Nacho Elvira, he will surely fancy his chances of gaining compensation.

The trouble is, it was Pieters' class rather than his course suitability which almost saw him do it and while the same scenario could well unfold, I'd rather be backing him at more driver-heavy layout. Some big-hitters have done well here and may do so again, but what you do off the tee has been the least important piece of the puzzle, even when Sam Horsfield beat Ryan Fox, the pair ranking 51st and 55th respectively in strokes-gained off-the-tee.

Elvira, whose driver is his biggest weakness, helps to demonstrate what this is all about and ultimately, supreme iron play has been key. Sixteen of the top 17 last year gained strokes with their approaches and this fabulous little throwback of a course will likely demand the same. In effect it levels the playing field off the tee in ways few others do and that deepens the pool of potential winners.

First up I really like SAM BAIRSTOW, who could follow the lead of Richard Mansell and Marco Penge and become the latest young, English player to break through.

Bairstow is a good driver of the ball and a long one too, but he's shown a pleasing aptitude for these tighter courses. Having played his home club before that doesn't necessarily surprise me as it's classical and parkland in nature, so he's presumably grown up learning to shape the ball and, when the situation demands it, to play placement golf.

Having recently relocated from Sheffield to the south of England to hopefully sharpen his game away from the tour, Bairstow's results suggest it's working: sixth in the Hainan Classic behind Penge, then seventh in Turkey behind another young winner, Martin Couvra. As we've come to expect he's driven it well, his approach play has gone up a level this year, and in general he's a fabulous putter which we've seen on several occasions.

Second in and 13th in India last year are perhaps his strongest correlating form lines, but the best guide to his chances comes from his debut in this event. Bairstow made a nightmare start to lie 136th after round one, then shot 65 to make the cut on the number, 63 to vault up the leaderboard, and a final-round 68 to finish 10th, his approach work the driving force behind that result.

Three shots better than the next best player over those closing 54 holes, Bairstow dropped a big hint and combined with his current form, plus a closing birdie at Walton Heath to qualify for the US Open on Monday, he looks a more obvious champion than general odds of 33/1 imply.

Truth be told there's nobody I like at shorter odds but I'd have been happy taking less than the 40/1 on offer about JORGE CAMPILLO.

• CLICK HERE to back Campillo with Sky Bet

It was a slightly weaker field in which the Spaniard finished runner-up last time but the narrow rise in grade balanced with the fact we know he both is made for and has played well at this course makes the same price feel generous, especially as he hadn't been playing well prior to Turkey.

Now that we've seen him turn a corner he's worth siding with, especially as two of his three DP World Tour wins came at around this time of year, straight after a top-five finish in which he'd hit the ball well, and at courses where what you do off the tee isn't particularly important.

That's exactly what Campillo wants and the obvious parallel is with Kenya, where he won a couple of years ago. Elvira had been runner-up there before he took this title and Rinkven contenders Romain Langasque, Joe Dean, Matty Jordan, Horsfield and Guido Migliozzi have all got form in both places, with the latter having done the double.

Campillo is more than capable of following suit and having led the field in strokes-gained approach in Turkey, where he was beaten only by a scintillating final round from Couvra, he looks primed to go well.

It's worth saying too that having made the latter stages of the Belgian Knockout here, he came back to finish 15th in the Soudal Open during a quiet run of form, sitting inside the top 10 after rounds two and three. His only subsequent appearance ended in a missed cut, but that was a freak result: this usually strong putter had a shocker and in fact led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green over the first two rounds.

He's hardly a player to set the pulse racing but courses like Rinkven don't require those. Campillo's precision, his pragmatism, are both big factors in his favour and having won when in red-hot form twice in the past, perhaps a hat-trick beckons.

While both Karen and Muthaiga in Nairobi are good guides to this along with Crans and perhaps even the Belfry, the best is Geneve. Unfortunately, that last hosted a Challenge Tour event in 2019 but it does the case for Campillo, just as it did Elvira last year.

Back then I wrote that 'six players have finished first or second in this event and also played Geneve at least once, and their results in Switzerland show three wins, two seconds, and a fourth.' That now reads seven players, four wins, two seconds and a fourth, and it's a really good angle albeit one which can only work in favour of players who've been around for a good while and played on the Challenge Tour.

Adrien Saddier is one option as a former runner-up there and I do like his chances. He should make an excellent three-ball or match bet option but while Sky Bet's standout 45/1 would've done, most firms are a fair bit shorter and I think he's the right sort of price. Saddier is a rock-solid operator, still improving perhaps, but he's winless still and took a backwards step in Turkey.

His compatriot FREDERIC LACROIX secured his breakthrough victory in Denmark last year and, perhaps significantly, that came after his compatriot David Ravetto had won the week before in the Czech Republic.

• CLICK HERE to back Lacroix with Sky Bet

Lacroix himself had closed out that event strongly so history is repeating here as he did exactly that in the Turkish Airlines Open, won in spectacular fashion by Couvra.

This wave of young French golfers should continue to spur each other on and Lacroix, buoyed by ing Bairstow in securing a US Open spot on Monday, has been a big eye-catcher of late.

Not only did he close with a best-of-the-day 63 on his debut in Turkey, but his approach play has returned to the levels he'd been displaying prior to that win in Denmark, ranking eighth in Singapore, 29th in India and then ninth last time out, his strong tee-to-green numbers also reflecting some solid work off the tee.

Lacroix is accurate, he ranks inside the top 20 for the season in strokes-gained approach, he's sharp around the greens, and if he can putt well then he ought to be a big player around this course, where he finished 34th last year and 33rd a year earlier, each time displaying promise with early rounds of 66.

He's improved since then and having just secured his first start in a major, perhaps he can double his DP World Tour tally.

The main Man

Jayden Schaper is remarkably similar on paper and might still have a higher ceiling, but his debut here wasn't quite so promising and his putting malaise seems a bigger issue. He too finished well in Turkey though and as a big fan of the youngster, he was quite hard to leave out given his strong record in Kenya and the fact that he's pounding greens right now.

I just slightly prefer to take on board extra risk with added upside and back MATTEO MANASSERO, advised at a standout 66/1 with some smaller firms but a bet all the way down to 40s given his pedigree.

• CLICK HERE to back Manassero with Sky Bet

Having been second at Geneve, third at Crans, sixth at the Belfry and fifth at DLF, Manassero ticks so many of the correlating form boxes and that's largely why I chanced him on debut here a year ago, when he finished an encouraging 13th and did everything to a high standard.

He of course went on to hit the crossbar in the Irish Open (at about 66/1 in a field featuring the very best players in Europe, when we were on), then finish fourth in the PGA Championship at Wentworth behind Rory McIlroy, Billy Horschel and Thriston Lawrence, and on that form he'd be well worth a place among the favourites here.

The difficulty then is in working out exactly where he is form-wise, as those performances helped Manassero to a PGA Tour card. He's played exclusively in the US so far this season and, outside of 12th place in the Zurich Classic team event and 25th in the Farmers, he doesn't have a great deal to show for his efforts on the face of it.

However, he has only missed three cuts in 11, despite being one of the worst drivers on the circuit, and I take that as a sign that he's not far away. All three were by narrow margins, too, and more recently he's defied a big power handicap to be 39th in Houston and 45th in the Byron Nelson, before again playing at a course for power players in the Myrtle Beach Classic, where Ryan Fox won.

Throw in the Mexico Open and Torrey Pines and he's been up against it virtually every week, never playing a course like this one. The only one that comes remotely close would be Copperhead and while he did miss the cut, Manassero's approach work there was by far his best of the year, only for the putter to let him down.

This may sound like a long list of excuses but I'd expect him to perform much, much better now back in the right grade, on the right sort of course, and that makes him a player with huge upside at the odds. This is a class act returned to his comfort zone and such players always merit respect.

Manassero isn't the only one – watch out for Lawrence, who is hitting it better, and even sco Molinari – but he is by far the most appealing and I have to have him on-side.

Elvira is tempting having picked up some place money for us last time and of course won this when we were on. He's a player you have to target at a very specific set of courses and while he is shorter than he was in Turkey, and the field is slightly better, he was imperious for most of last year's tournament so that doesn't seem unfair.

Andrea Pavan is a similar player and could go well but youngster JACOB SKOV OLESEN stands out as excellent value at around 80/1.

• CLICK HERE to back Olesen with Sky Bet

Olesen ranks 23rd in strokes-gained total so far this season, splitting Jordan and Wenyi Ding, and having foolishly left Couvra out of the staking plan in Turkey when the case for him was similar, I'm hoping another rising star of the circuit can compensate us for that.

Olesen was a top amateur and what he's done since starting out on the DP World Tour has been hugely impressive. So far he's played 13 tournaments and entered Sunday inside the top 10 on five occasions, and with four top-15 finishes in his last five there's every indication that he's getting more comfortable by the week.

Only on a long, soft, bombers' golf course in Hainan did he struggle a bit but otherwise he's been excellent, including on a tree-lined course in Turkey last time. There, Olesen was 102nd after round one but shot 67-69-65 to climb to 12th, again excelling with his approach play to rank second.

That will be key this week and at 30th in driving accuracy and greens hit, 32nd in strokes-gained approach, 24th in strokes-gained tee-to-green and 10th in scoring average, this tidy, rounded young player from a thriving golf nation can make a big impact on his Rinkven debut. That he did so when 13th in Kenya, and when fifth on home soil on another positional course, is massively encouraging.

In fact I'd say that all six of his top-15 finishes at this level have come when there's less of an emphasis on power and my instinct is that he'll love this place, especially as he has fond memories of winning an amateur tournament in Belgium once upon a time. Let's hope that he can mark his return with a first professional win.

Todd Clements and Bernd Wiesberger both made the shortlist along with Ben Schmidt at a bigger price, but there's one outsider I really do like despite some obvious negatives and that's MATTHEW BALDWIN at enormous odds.

• CLICK HERE to back Baldwin with Sky Bet

He missed the cut by two shots in Turkey and that's eight missed cuts already this year, but prior to the latest one he'd been 54th and 23rd in China, both times much higher up the leaderboard entering Sunday before a lack of confidence presumably told.

Still, those are two indications he's getting there and it was good to see his putting improve having been the biggest problem by some distance over the past year, and while that club took a backwards step in Turkey, in contrast his tee-to-green game was outstanding.

That was the case here at Rinkven last year when he arrived out of sorts but opened 66-67 to lie eighth at halfway, eventually fading to 24th, and with his iron play having improved throughout each of his last five starts, Baldwin comes back for another go with his ball-striking in a much better place than it was then.

He remains accurate off the tee and excellent around the greens and having also played well in the Belgian Knockout on his sole previous visit to this course, it's definitely the right one for a return to his best if he can just get that putter firing again.

Good play on both starts at Geneve is encouraging, he has a top-10 in Kenya too, and it's only last September that he finished fourth alongside Manassero at Wentworth. Again, that's simply the right sort of course for this tidy operator who will need to find something on the greens to produce his first top 10 since, but is well capable of contending if he can do that.

Posted at 1900 BST on 19/05/25

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