Louis Bollard provides his best bets ahead of the Formula One season, with a range of fancies from the specials markets.
Formula One betting tips: Antepost specials
2pts Kimi Antonelli to score 250+ points at 40/1 (General)
2pts each of the six rookies (Antonelli, Doohan, Lawson, Bearman, Hadjar, Borteleto) to score 5+ points at 80/1 (General)
2pts Oliver Bearman to score 50+ points at 66/1 (General)
- Follow Formula One expert Louis Bollard on X
Antonelli set for big year
Testing is now complete and it has confirmed that the four top teams remain clear of the field with the general consensus being that McLaren are slightly ahead of Mercedes and Ferrari with Red Bull in fourth place. If this proves to be the case, Mercedes will have their most competitive car since 2021.
This is music to the ears of KIMI ANTONELLI who has been highly regarded and will be looking to be competitive immediately into his debut season.
In a car that was clearly fourth best in 2024, George Russell managed to score 245 points (270 if you discount his Spa disqualification), meaning that 250 points for Antonelli would be a strong season but not impossible. Russell did achieve this target in his first Mercedes season in 2022 by scoring 275 points in a season that featured two less races and three less sprints.
The removal of points for fastest lap has taken 24 points off the table, but with five drivers achieving this points total in 2024 Antonelli is value to reach this target.
Rely on rookies
A major talking point at the start of the season will be how each of the six full-time rookies fare. There is already the full spectrum of confidence behind each, with Antonelli having his teammate worried about his future, to Jack Doohan who could lose his seat by as early as race six.
There is value in each rookie to score 5+ points this season, which includes Antonelli, Doohan, Liam Lawson, Oliver Bearman, Isack Hadjar and Gabriel Borteleto.
This is essentially bet on four of them (Doohan, Bearman, Hadjar and Borteleto) as it should be taken for granted that Antonelli and Lawson will far exceed this points total, although it may have been a challenge for Lawson's predecessor.
In Doohan's favour, the car looks to be best of the rest after testing, with most analysts putting Pierre Gasly's car just ahead of the Williams. Doohan was slower than this in testing but clearly the car has pace and he will be expected to be scoring points if his teammate is.
Haas had a quiet test where they only focused on long runs so we do not know where to place them in the pecking order but it is assumed they will be in the hunt for points. Bearman will get the full season and should clear this points target.
VCARB unveiled a radically different, but striking livery at the season launch and then followed up in testing with a mediocre showing. It looks like they are the eighth or ninth best team, but Hadjar will be given plenty of time and this team has developed well throughout the season, so he will get points-scoring opportunities throughout the season.
Kick Sauber look to remain the worst car in the field post-testing, but positive signs are that they have closed the gap to the back of the field continuing the progress made throughout 2024. Zhou Guanyu had managed to drag four points out the car last season. Borteleto is value to build on this.
Brilliant Bearman
As mentioned above, it's difficult to know where Haas are at currently as their run plan in testing was vastly different from their rivals. Comments from team personnel have been generally positive since the test and the team will be hopeful of at least replicating the 2024 performance.
Nico Hulkenberg managed to score 41 points and finished 11th seven times. It will be stretch but Bearman could build on this, combined with the potential to fill in for the Ferrari works team on any weekend. There is value in him to break the 50 points barrier.
Posted at 1105 GMT on 12/03/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further and info
