F1 expert Louis Bollard previews the Miami Grand Prix, which looks set to be dominated by McLaren.
F1 betting tips: Miami Grand Prix
3pts Oscar Piastri to win the Miami Grand Prix at 6/4 (General)
2pts Liam Lawson to beat Yuki Tsunoda at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Ollie Bearman to finish in the points at 7/2 (General)
1pt Haas double-points finish at 19/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
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It's a year since Lando Norris took his maiden grand prix victory here in Miami. It took him 110 races to finally reach the top step of the podium and his jubilant post-race celebrations encomed how much it meant to him.
Fast forward to 2025 and circumstances have completely changed because with McLaren's dominance, anything other than a win for their drivers is seen as below expectations.
With Norris struggling for form there should be a bigger discrepancy in the pricing with OSCAR PIASTRI, who has been impeccable since binning it into the grass in his home race.
The return to a track filled with slow-speed corners means it's hard to look past McLaren for victory, as their tyre advantage will be more akin to Bahrain than Saudi Arabia.
Despite Norris winning this race last year, Piastri had the upper hand on his teammate throughout the weekend. Had the safety car been brought out three laps earlier the Aussie would have been in line for his first victory.
Norris is still lacking confidence in the car, as seen in mistakes across the past two races while his teammate has delivered metronomic performances. He's a strong fancy.
Lawson's revenge
The Red Bull looked much more comfortable around the high-speed track of Jeddah than it did in Bahrain.
This weekend I expect we will see similar struggles as the car's weakness will be exposed by the awkward, slow-speed corners, making a podium a big ask for Max Verstappen.
The best way to take advantage of this performance discrepancy though is to back LIAM LAWSON to beat Yuki Tsunoda.
Lawson's progress since being demoted has been rapid, cumulating in a points-worthy drive in Jeddah despite a post-race penalty.
Combining this with Red Bull's expected struggles I have him close to Tsunoda on expected performance. Note that this bet is found under 'Popular RequestABets' on the main race market page.
Bearman in the points?
The Haas has shown that when conditions are suitable, they can challenge for best of the midfield and when they do not suit they become 2024 Sauber.
This weekend I am banking on the track to suit, much like the traction demands of Bahrain played to the strengths of the VF-25, a similar trait required for Miami.
Despite being behind his teammate in the standings, OLLIE BEARMAN has been the more impressive driver of the pair to date. Stellar drives after poor qualifications in China, Japan and Bahrain all resulted in points for the young Brit.
In addition, Haas have managed to achieve DOUBLE POINTS finishes in two of the opening five races demonstrating that when conditions are suitable they can deliver. Haas can build on this 40% strike-rate at their first home race of 2025.
Other drivers' chances
Max Verstappen
These are the weekends which will define where he drives in 2026. He will have low expectations of his car but don't expect him to accept this. Upgrade is planned for Imola next time out which may address the pain.
George Russell
Having the best start to a season of his career. Will be favourite to chase the McLarens home. Has his sights set on a podium on merit this weekend.
Kimi Antonelli
Has shown excellent one-lap pace. Tyre management remains an issue although improving signs in Jeddah. Will be tougher to manage tyres around Miami.
Charles Leclerc
Strong record at this track but car is struggling over one lap. With qualifying more important than ever, if he is starting behind a slower car expect him to stick to the rear but struggle to make progress. In clear air he's a podium contender.
Lewis Hamilton
Suffering with issues caused by inability to run car at optimal ride height. May be able to run a more optimal set-up in the sprint with the light fuel load and deliver another strong performance. Expect his Sunday struggles to continue until upgrade.
Posted at 1340 BST on 01/05/25
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