Louis Bollard fancies Kimi Antonelli to capitalise on his knowledge of Imola and make a run at pole position in the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix.
F1 betting tips: Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix
3pts e.w. Kimi Antonelli to qualify fastest at 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3)
2pts Isack Hadjar to be the best of the rest at 7/1 (Unibet)
- Follow Formula One expert Louis Bollard on X
The beginning of the European season marks a return to conventional race tracks where the cream will rise to the top. With sunny weather forecast, Imola will be a barometer for overall car performance until regulation change in Catalunya.
The race winner market is a clear two-horse race but qualifying is a different story. McLaren dominated in Miami, clearing the rest of the field by more than 30 seconds. However, their main advantage (keeping the rear tyres cool) is not as helpful over one lap.
McLaren have only taken pole in three races so far, yet have been the best on Sunday in each race.
It has been a steep learning curve but now it is time for KIMI ANTONELLI to take his maiden main race pole position at a circuit that is 40km from where he was born in Bologna.
Antonelli has been improving rapidly over his first five F1 races and is now getting the most out of the Mercedes package over one lap. He took pole in the Miami sprint race and qualified third for the main race, ahead of his experienced teammate.
Antonelli clinching pole at a circuit he has never been to before was especially eye-catching and he's value to repeat that feat at a circuit he knows like the back of his hand having raced here throughout his junior career.
Hadjar best of the rest
With the way the season has started it would be no surprise to see ISACK HADJAR in a Red Bull seat soon. He has been one of the star performers so far having challenged Yuki Tsunoda and convincingly getting the better of current teammate Liam Lawson after his demotion.
The Racing Bulls is a much easier car to drive in comparison with the sister team's and Hadjar has been able to extract the maximum, taking home the crown of 'best of the rest' (winning without McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull) at the Japanese Grand Prix.
Hadjar was unlucky not to win this market in Saudi Arabia too as excellent DRS teamwork by both Williams drivers held him up when on the charge. He was similarly in contention for this market in China before a strategy blunder and looks set to be in the shake-up again.
The Williams' drivers head the betting in this market after getting the better of Ferrari and Antonelli in Miami. This performance though was track specific as the easy combination of corners and long straights fed into the their strengths. I expect Williams to return to the midfield as they struggle with the tricky corner combinations in Imola.
The easy-to-drive Racing Bulls combined with Hadjar's track knowledge can lead him on a charge to the front of the midfield. I had considered adding Hadjar for a points finish at 15/8, but I prefer the bigger price for him to be best of the rest.
Other drivers' chances
Oscar Piastri
Unless he gets into trouble it's hard to see him outside the top two. Managing to win when he isn't the fastest McLaren but rather is avoiding mistakes. Only a matter of time before it all boils over and Zak Brown has to intervene.
Lando Norris
Once again caught out by Verstappen in Miami which ultimately cost him a shot at the win. Form figures of 3-3-2 around this circuit in worse machinery. Will expect him to be the faster of the two drivers but needs to stop making mistakes or this championship will get away from him.
Max Verstappen
Phenomenal job to drag this car to pole for the third time this season last time out. Excellent defensive drive at this circuit last year. Track won't suit the car but that hasn't stopped him before.
George Russell
Mr Consistency. Got lucky with the VSC in Miami which got him on the podium. Still the better Mercedes driver on Sundays and should make another run at the podium.
Charles Leclerc
The season has slowly gotten worse. It's hard to back him for a podium until we see positive signs.
Franco Colapinto
Returns after a hiatus. Immediately made an impact when he ed mid-season in Monza last year, getting the better of Albon at times before fading. Flavio will hope for fewer mistakes from him than Doohan had. Knowing to shut the DRS before a corner would be a good place to start.
Posted at 2105 BST on 14/05/25
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