Football betting tips: Premier League outrights
2pts Aston Villa to finish in the top six at 13/2 (Sporting Index, SpreadEx)
1pt Aston Villa to finish in the top four at 40/1 (Sporting Index, SpreadEx)
With only 11 rounds of fixtures remaining, 10 if you're Aston Villa or Liverpool, the Premier League table is looking curio and curio.
At the top end, much of this season's narrative has been dominated by Nottingham Forest's attempts to gatecrash those upper echelons.
Until recently, perhaps as a result of a superb campaign for Nuno Espirito Santo's refreshingly 'old school' team, Bournemouth's own achievements had largely gone unnoticed.
Just as the praise and increased focus arrived, so did successive defeats for the first time since November.
Those results, alongside Forest finally showing signs they may be cracking just a touch, has opened up the possibility of an enthralling run-in that threatens to involve almost half the division.
Just six points separates Forest in third from Aston Villa in 10th.
If further evidence was needed that this is no short-term situation lasting a weekend or two, look no further than the FA Cup quarter-final draw for an indication of how competitive the top flight has become.
Six of the eight teams involved currently sit in that aforementioned six-point bubble, with the exceptions 12th-placed Preston.
Premier League Top 4 | Top 6 finish odds (via Sky Bet)
- Manchester City - 2/7 | 1/8
- Chelsea - 5/6 | 1/7
- Nottingham Forest - 9/4 | 4/11
- Newcastle - 9/4 | 2/5
- Bournemouth - 9/1 | 13/8
- Brighton - 11/1 | 2/1
- Aston Villa - 28/1 | 11/2
- Fulham - 40/1 | 15/2
City to stroll
Unsurprisingly, the bookmakers favour the established clubs with MANCHESTER CITY and Chelsea odds-on to finish in the top four.
City's struggles have been well-documented. While they've been unpredictable for most of this season there are clear signs of improved league results, with six wins, a draw and two defeats since they ended their terrible run of form on December 29.
Continuing with anything close to that 2.11 points per game average would likely see them comfortably finish in third place.
Most importantly for Pep Guardiola's side, their losses over the past two months have come against PSG, Arsenal, Real Madrid and Liverpool, with them rediscovering the ability to pick up results against the rest.
That's all they need and their remaining fixtures are by far the easiest of any team in the division; on paper at least.
Chelsea to choke?
As for Guardiola's former deputy Enzo Maresca, things look far less straightforward.
Not only has win over Southampton only their third in 11 top-flight matches, they face many challenges in the closing weeks.
As City edge towards a fully-fit squad that was significantly strengthened in January, the Blues have a mounting injury list and surely regret allowing multiple players to leave during the transfer window.
While Guardiola's men can focus with clearer midweeks after being knocked out of the Champions League, Maresca's must navigate the awkwardness of Thursday night Conference League matches.
And as favourable as City's run-in is, Chelsea's is far from that. They face Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle and Tottenham alongside trips to local rivals Brentford and Fulham.
There is also a potentially high-stakes final-day trip to Nottingham Forest.
The prevailing view will be that it's a serious failure should Maresca not secure a place in the top four.
In reality, it would be a huge achievement given what lies ahead.
Too short to be safe
FOREST and NEWCASTLE currently sandwich City and Chelsea in the table, so the duo essentially being considered equally likely to either force their way into the top four, or secure a fifth-place finish that in all likelihood will mean Champions League qualification, makes sense.
But there have been clear signs of both clubs wobbling in recent weeks.
Back in late November/early December, a run of three of defeats in four matches triggered the first murmurings of Forest starting to regress towards mid-table, but those losses were to Arsenal, Manchester City and Newcastle so it perhaps shouldn't have been a surprise that they shrugged them off.
The past six weeks has been very different.
A previously watertight defence has conceded 15 goals in five matches against Bournemouth, Fulham, Newcastle, Southampton and Sky Bet League One side Exeter.
Just four points have been taken from their past five league games, and a squad relatively shallow in depth has twice been forced to play 180 minutes in the FA Cup to progress to the quarter-finals.
Newcastle's run of nine successive wins in all competitions from early December to early January saw them transform their season.
But reaching the Carabao Cup final appears to have knocked them seriously off kilter, with the Magpies W4 L5 across their last nine fixtures; if we're splitting hairs, one of those defeats was a draw after 90 minutes before losing to Brighton in extra time.
The focus in the aftermath of that last-16 exit was understandably on the loss of Alexander Isak limping off injured.
Unsurprisingly given his quality, Newcastle's fortunes are tied to him.
Such reliance, and subsequent streakiness, makes them difficult to trust in the run-in.
Cherries pick of the bunch
BOURNEMOUTH's consistency under Andoni Iraola makes it very tough to anticipate any kind of drop-off in the closing weeks.
Only Liverpool can match their feat of never going more than two league games without a win this season and since Iraola collected his first Premier League victory in what felt like a must-win game against Burnley back in October 2023, the Cherries have collected the sixth-most points in the top flight.
This term they've overcome injury problems at both ends of the pitch that would've derailed many teams, but their adaptable, intelligent young coach simply found a way to make things work; he could be a decisive factor.
Their recent back-to-back defeats are nothing to be concerned about, with Bournemouth down to 10 men after just 31 minutes of the Brighton edged to a 2-1 victory.
At a best price of 12/1 TO FINISH IN THE TOP FOUR there are worse bets out there.
Fabian Hurzeler is enjoying an excellent maiden campaign at BRIGHTON and it could just be that his team are peaking are the perfect time.
Five wins from seven in the league and five in a row in all competitions has made light of a 7-0 thrashing at Nottingham Forest on February 1.
Similarly priced to Bournemouth and like the Cherries with an FA Cup quarter-final on the horizon, the hitherto streaky nature of Hurzeler's tenure makes them a tricky team to trust.
Only a point further down the table, FULHAM are considered rank outsiders, with the prices jumping to as big as 12/1 and 50/1 for a top six and top four finish respectively.
Without labouring the point, seven of the Cottagers' final 11 matches are against top-half teams, with three of the exceptions being a derby at neighbours Brentford, a meeting with vastly improved Everton and a home match against a Tottenham team who are getting more players returning to fitness every week.
It would be some achievement in any circumstances for Marco Silva's men to break into the top six, but against that schedule? Almost a miracle.
Villans to heroes?
Propping up the top half are ASTON VILLA.
What a climax to the season it could be for Unai Emery's team as they head into and Club Brugge with a 3-1 lead. Should they progress as expected, Liverpool or PSG await.
Their Premier League fixture list is quite something too.
Beginning with a trip to renowned home force Brentford they then face six of the sides above them across their next seven matches before finishing up at home to Tottenham and away to Manchester United.
For Villa to secure European football for a third successive campaign under their outstanding Spanish coach, they'll have to do it the hard way.
But they undoubtedly have the best coach of the contenders, and in stepping up their level to win in Belgium have shown the ability they have to deliver big performances when they're most needed.
Villa's bench in Bruges was of serious interest too as players continue to return to fitness. Their only absentees were Ross Barkley who should be fit a couple of weeks later.
After their trip to Brentford, Emery's side won't play a Premier League game for 25 days due to a combination of the international break and their FA Cup commitments, giving them plenty of time to gather themselves for one final push.
While the Cup may very well be their best route into Europe, a price of 40/1 for VILLA TO FINISH IN THE TOP FOUR seems far too big, as does the 13/2 for them to FINISH IN THE TOP SIX.
- CLICK HERE to back Aston Villa to finish in the top four with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Aston Villa to finish in the top six with Sky Bet
Before a ball was kicked they were 3/1 and 11/8 respectively.
Odds correct at 0835 GMT (7/3/25)
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