Nathan Jones' histrionics after Charlton edged Wycombe 1-0 in the League One play-off semi-finals were certainly over the top, and weren't most people's cup of tea, but all I'm thinking is just how high he has raised the bar for the final, where I'm expecting him to perform to levels never before seen in the EFL should the Addicks be promoted to the Championship.

I expect them to be too, but having already backed them to win the play-offs before they got under way and in the absence of an over/under steps to be completed by Charlton's hyperactive manager on the Wembley touchline market, I'm instead looking at some big prices about both their centre-backs TO SCORE FIRST and TO SCORE ANYTIME.

There is absolutely no way Jones will want Leyton Orient to turn this into a free-flowing contest, favouring an arm wrestle built on superb defensive organisation, high levels of commitment, and detail - especially at set-pieces.

Charlton defenders LLOYD JONES and MACAULEY GILLESPHEY have scored three and five goals respectively this season. Of those eight goals, six were against teams you could fairly describe as fellow promotion chasers, demonstrating how much emphasis Nathan Jones places on set-pieces in hard-fought matches against opponents of a similar level.

Orient have done phenomenally well to reach this stage, but they had to survive an onslaught from Stockport to reach a penalty shootout. They gave up plenty of chances in open play, but from dead balls Fraser Horsfall constantly exposed their fragility, with superb goalkeeping, the woodwork and a matter of inches all that denied the Hatters' giant centre-back from scoring.

JONES and GILLESPHEY are a respective 14s and 11/1 to find the net, and 33s and 25/1 to break the deadlock. In a match that feels unlikely to contain more than a couple of goals, backing them to small stakes either each-way, or separately with different bookmakers to get the best price you can on each market, is the play.

Jake Osgathorpe

Sorry to be boring (again), but I can't see this being one for the purists. Goals will be at a at Wembley given the stakes and the fact that Charlton are involved.

The Addicks are a fine margin team who boast the second best defensive process in the third tier, behind only record-breakers Birmingham, and I feel as though if they get the first goal it's game over.

Leyton Orient may be a fairly free-scoring team, but it's not every week they face a defence as stout as Charlton's, or a team happy to make a game incredibly ugly and nick a winner.

Charlton boss Nathan Jones

I think Charlton will win here, but I'll reduce stakes and back CHARLTON TO WIN BY ONE GOAL at 11/4.

That may seem like a reach, but hear me out. Nathan Jones' men have won 26 of 48 games in League One this season, and 18 of those victories have come by a single goal. That's a 38% strike rate overall, which would imply blanket odds of 13/8, and that simply makes the price on offer for a repeat here massive.

It's worth saying that this bet won in both league meetings this term too, and across all 52 EFL play-off finals to be played at the new Wembley, 24 have been decided by a single goal (46%).

I wouldn't put anyone off the 1-0 correct score at bigger odds (11/2), but this gives us added security if there are more goals than anticipated, with the 2-1 covered.

Score prediction: Charlton 1-0 Leyton Orient

Tom Carnduff

Yep. I'm in agreement with the others on this game - I don't expect it to be a thriller for the neutral.

At least the strike options on both sides gives us the possibility that it could be good. The pair possess a clinical finisher leading their respective lines.

Orient's Matty Godden finished t-third (18). I'm hoping both turn up.

I was going to suggest CHARLTON TO WIN as my straightforward selection, but I'll actually NO BET it.

Jake's taken the Addicks to win by one goal while Joe is on the centre-backs finding the net. The price on Charlton winning in 90 minutes means it's not really worth me putting them up given the staking plan.

Score prediction: Charlton 1-0 Leyton Orient

Odds correct at 1930 BST (23/05/25)

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