There's always the clichéd CLOUD OF UNCERTAINTY with any play-off campaign.
Can those who narrowly missed out on automatic promotion gather themselves to battle again? Will those who snuck in at the final moment capitalise on that momentum? What about those whose fate has been known for a while and have been ticking down the weeks?
I usually have an idea of who I'll be backing across all three divisions but this season has been a bit of a head-scratcher - particularly in League Two where you've got a match-up between a side in free-fall from top spot and one who I didn't expect to be making the play-offs at all.
It's a fantastic time of the year... if your own team isn't involved. If they are, the enjoyment of watching these do-or-die games is held back by thoughts of it soon being your turn to suffer such anxiety. The best way to be promoted but the worst way to miss out. Extremes at both ends of the scale sum up that there is no middle ground to be found in a play-off campaign.
This edition of the Notebook is putting sole focus on the apparent 'end of season lottery', poking plenty of holes in that assumption with three key points discussed based on recent history.
Better teams come to the fore
Since the second tier's rebrand (this is the 21st season of the 'Championship') those who finished third typically fare well in the play-offs.
A total of 16 of the 20 third-placed finishers (80%) have made the final while nine (45%) have gone on to achieve promotion.
Recent history takes that latter figure down slightly with only four of the last 10 (40%) reaching the Premier League. Again though, 80% made Wembley.
You have to go back to 2018/19 to find the last third-placed side who failed to progress beyond the semi-finals when Sheffield Wednesday in 15/16.
The last side to finish sixth and be promoted was all the way back in 2010 when West Ham in 04/05.
This season could perhaps see the current pattern continue considering the four teams involved.
Leicester in 12/13) for a sixth-placed team.
They face Sheffield United, whose 90 points marked only the second time a side weren't automatically promoted with that total, but the second season in succession it's happened after Leeds missed out last term.
So the t-highest play-offs points tally meets the t-lowest. Obvious outcome right?
Does home advantage matter?
There is an incentive for teams to finish higher in the table to not only earn a tie against a team who finished lower, but also to gain the right of hosting the second leg of the semi-final - but is this an advantage?
In theory it should be. Regardless of the scoreline in the first leg, playing the next game in front of your own ers should deliver a boost.
The most famous example in recent times - or perhaps in play-offs history - is Sheffield Wednesday's League One meeting with Peterborough in 2023, when having lost the first leg 4-0, Wednesday rallied back in remarkable circumstances at Hillsborough by drawing level in the eighth minute of added time before eventually winning the contest on penalties with the scores level at 5-5 on aggregate.
They would ultimately be promoted with the last kick off extra-time at Wembley, too.
Home advantage has been a feature in more recent years.
Last season, both Leeds (third) and Southampton (fourth) failed to win away first legs before securing victory in front of their own ers a few days later.
Barnsley won their second leg having drawn the first at Bolton.
Across the last five seasons where play-offs were played without er restrictions (excluding Covid years), 50% of teams have won a home second leg having not won the first.
In the previous three, that figure moves up to 56%. This factors in teams winning on the night rather than aggregate scores and progression.
A number of factors are at play to explain why but a big reason could simply be a better team across the course of a campaign needing a result in front of a stadium full of their own fans - that is a tough situation for a 'weaker' visiting team.
Will we see goals?
Recent history suggests it's unlikely many goals will be involved, no matter the stage of the play-offs.
Just one of the last nine finals has seen over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes - Mansfield in the 2021/22 League Two final.
Across the past three seasons of semi-finals, 66% of legs have involved two or fewer (under 2.5) goals with the figure exactly the same for both first and second legs.
Of course, we have to consider the teams involved and their respective approaches to playing, but the nerves among ers can often transmit onto the pitch.
It's a time of heightened tension. Nobody wants to make a mistake. Teams will typically adopt a safer approach, particularly when the scores are level.
This is further evident in the final. Six of the previous 30 finals (20%) have finished 0-0 after 90 minutes. There's been a single goal in five (17%) with two goals scored in nine of the matches (30%), the most common outcome.
We have had some action though with four goals landing on four occasions (13%) - a bit of a rarity in more recent times.
While the play-offs truly may very well be the best time of the season in of drama, it's not a period where we get used to the net being struck on multiple occasions.
Showtime in the West End
And here’s one for the superstitious, or for those like me who just love a random football stat.
Over the past 10 seasons with fans, it’s 5-5 for the winning team of the Championship final and the end their ers were in at Wembley.
However, more recent years have favoured the West. Three of the previous four teams who have gone on to achieve promotion had their ers roaring them on from the West end of Wembley - that’s to the left of the main TV camera angle.
The only team who didn’t across that run was Luton, whose fans witnessed their success on penalties from the East.
And if you go back slightly further, it’s four from the previous six. While not at a level of being considered ‘lucky’, it’s certainly the end to be in based on recent history.
Keep an eye on the ticket news when we know the two teams if you fancy a different approach to picking out your winner.
So let's see if another club is capable of defying gravity to roar their team to promotion. Really clutching for a very bad West End reference to finish there but I just don’t know enough about theatre.
I can only apologise.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.